- AUD/USD bulls are in charge at the start of the week but bears are lurking.
- The US Dollar bulls need to show up to enable the Aussie is going to break the downside structure.
As per the start of the week's analysis, AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls eye 0.7020, bears target a break of H1 structure, 0.6910 and then AUD/USD starts off bid and eyes are on 0.7000/20, we have seen the initial balance continue to run higher, a touch above the 0.7020 stop hunt area into 0.7039 so far.
The bears are now on the lookout for the US dollar to firm up and how who is still the boss of the forex board. that might be a tall order considering the market's speculation that the Federal Reserve is on the verge of a major pivot, but the technicals speak for themselves.
The following illustrates the prospects for a downside correction in AUD/USD should all of the stars align this week, considering the red news scheduled on both the Aussie and US calendar.
AUD/USD prior analysis
As per the above's pre-market analysis, the initial balance for the week was on track for scoring territory into the price imbalances:
It was stated that there had been the potential for a move-up in the initial balance for the week to mitigate the imbalances to test the peak formation left behind from Wednesday's highs last week. The key areas to the downside were sighted as being 0.6950 and then 0.6910 ahead of 0.6870.
AUD/USD update
We have since seen the Asian, London and US opening hours conclude with the price reaching the extreme price imbalance and paint a W-formation on the trendline support. Given the price is now testing major resistance, a downside correction would be expected at this juncture to test the prior resistance around 0.7010.
However, if the downside thesis from that point is going to gather momentum, the US Dollar needs to make its move.
DXY technical analysis
The bulls are attempting to commit and 102.25 will be a key milestone if they can breach the level and get over the trendline resistance.