Over the past six weeks, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8%, the best performance leading up to an earnings season since the first quarter of 2021. Economists at UBS share their S&P 500 forecast.
Earnings will beat
With economic activity more resilient than expected, Q2 should mark the trough in earnings growth. We look for S&P 500 profits to beat expectations and decline 3-5% year-over-year. Excluding the energy sector, profits could be up slightly. Guidance for Q3 should also be good.
We keep our full-year 2023 and 2024 S&P 500 EPS estimates of $215 (-2% YoY) and $235 (+9% YoY) unchanged but believe there is more upside versus downside risks to these numbers.
Our S&P 500 price targets for December 2023 and June 2024 are 4,100 and 4,400, respectively.